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Global oil supply surplus: the price may be even lower

發表時間:2016-10-28 14:45:50

According to the report hall to understand: in the first half of 2016, because the giants such as Saudi Arabia, Goldman sachs has declared that the excess supply of crude oil situation end, helped fuel traders bullish sentiment, international oil prices in back to back above $50 a barrel in early June this year, and refresh the highs. But today, the mood is decline rapidly.

 

Since early June, after hitting a high international oil prices turned down nearly 20%, to reach into the definition of a bear market. Even in excess oil production decline trend, but high global inventories, especially gasoline inventories, and recovery of drilling activity in the United States, I'm afraid further supply of crude oil will lead to inflation.

 

According to Morgan Stanley (Morgan Stanley) is expected, although earlier this year disrupted parts production, makes the excess supply a certain amount of digestion, but as a production problem resolved, crude oil prices could fall to $30 a barrel again.

 

BNP Paribas (BNP Paribas) in London commodity markets strategy at Harry Tchilinguirian said, "the situation is turning against the bulls, they concluded that the oil market before start rebalancing and oil bulls, but too soon. The time required for probably slightly longer than than they expected."

 

During February to June this year, oil prices have almost doubled, Goldman sachs, during the international energy agency (IEA), and Saudi Arabia's new energy secretary, mana Hector (Khalid Al - Falih), according to industry giants such as U.S. crude oil production decline and countries such as Nigeria, Canada's crude oil production disruptions, eventually will end years of excess supply of crude oil. But now, as the market is increasingly aware of the situation of oversupply still need time to solve, the biggest monthly decline in July, oil prices hit a year.

 

Vitol SA in Geneva, the director of the David Fransen said, "a lot, and refining of crude oil products supply is slightly weaker demand growth."

 

According to data from the international energy agency (IEA), even in excess supply still serious period, the industrialized countries of crude oil and refined oil inventories are still growing, currently has more than 3 billion barrels of oil. Due to the dealers to sell goods, the current inventories of hoarding oil tankers at sea are the highest since the end of the financial crisis in 2008-2009.

 

The excess supply of some countries, meanwhile, the situation is worsening. The U.S. energy information administration (EIA) on Wednesday (July 27), according to data as the world's largest oil consumer, the latest week to an unexpected rise in the country's crude oil inventory, a downward summer driving season against normal inventory.

 

(Goldman Sachs) commodities research at Goldman Sachs sach said, "now the excess supply of the latest challenge for the oil market is shifted from crude oil to oil products. Because of the refinery gasoline in mass production after use of the advantage of lower oil prices, the current vehicle fuel inventory is at the highest level in at least 20 years."

 

Morgan Stanley, Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Longson has said, "with the increase of oil production, oil prices could further lower."

 

The bank pointed out that this year due to wildfires may once interrupted by Canada's oil sands production capacity has been restored, and Nigeria in the previous production for armed attack fell to a 30-year low, after the section capacity also have been restored. "For more information, please refer to the Chinese oil industry analysis report latest hall published the 2016 China petroleum and chemical industry research report.

 



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